ALMONDS:

The next almond position report is scheduled to be released on January 11th and it will contain the final numbers for the 2018 crop receipts.

If receipts are off as much as many are saying (100-150 million lbs), prices will likely jump up even further post report.

Some larger companies have already started to realize this and have begun taking cover to get them through the Subjective estimate that comes out in May.

Some are saying that the Subjective estimate could be as high as 2.6 billion pounds for next year, not too much of a stretch really. Just last year, from 2017 to 2018 the bearing acreage increased by 70 thousand acres, from 1,000,000 to 1,070,000. With the new plantings this year, bearing acreage is projected to be up about 80,000 which would put the 2019 crop in the 1,150,000 acre range. If you figure a yield of 2,260 per acre on that total then the estimate would come in at 2,599,000,000 lbs.

While the news of a big crop next year may bring the market cost down at some point, the real issue at hand becomes, will the balance of the 2018 crop be enough to get us through August?

All that being said the first 10 days of the new year could provide as good a buying opportunity as we may see for the balance of this crop year.

PECANS:

Inshell is trading at about the same level it has for the last month, $3.35-45 per point for good quality.

China has not stepped in as they do not want to pay an additional 47% tariff. They have not bought much from Mexico as the Sonora crop was lackluster this year and it is the only growing region (in Mexico) with the size that they demand.

Even with the hurricane in Georgia, they have a large crop.

Overall I think it is safe to say the pecan industry will stay in an oversupply situation this year.

FJMH are trading in the low $5's
Pieces are trading in the mid to high $4's

That is an AVERAGE cost between the US and Mexico.

WALNUTS:

Pricing remains very appealing.

Many have taken cover well into next year.

LHP $2.35 pasteurized
LMP $2.45 pasteurized
CHP $2.25 pasteurized.

Many feel there is no downside to this market.

The team At Global Bottomline-NutExchange wishes you and your family a Happy New year!