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Market Update 8/31/21

August 31, 2021

Dry conditions have persisted well into the summer. With the 400 million pound negative difference between the subjective and the objective estimates, prices have risen dramatically. 27/30 looks to be the overall dominant size coming off of the trees - expect a hefty premium for anything larger. The water situation is desperate and temperatures are in the triple digits. Pray for rain.

NPS $3.00-$3.60
ABCs $2.85-$3.50
Cal/Carmel $2.55-$2.90

The Market has been fairly still, however, it has picked up a little in the last couple of weeks. Contract shipments are strong.
Pecans in cold storage seem to have dwindled quickly. Prices for halves and pieces have firmed up. Labor shortages keep most handlers from running more than one shift, so shipments are delayed - which may be one reason for the uptick in pricing.

Crop size was reported at the National Pecan Shellers Meeting in Denver last week as US 323 million, Mexico imports (to the US) at 253 million and carry-in as 201 million. There are some claims that the Mexican crop is going to be 180-200 million total, others say a 300 million pound crop is more realistic. That 300 Million is still about 20% down from last year.

FJMH $5.15-$5.60
Fancy Pieces $3.55-$4.10

Shipments have been good and supply is basically gone. Prices have been bullish as the industry has seen excellent shipments again last month.
The CASS Objective Measurement Report release date has been delayed from August 27 to September 1. Unclear as to why, but we will watch with interest. The dry situation in California has many worried about whether the crop will fill out properly or shrivel.

LHP $2.75-$2.95
CHP $2.40-$2.60

Pricing is increasing with unsure demand. Vietnamese WW 180-240 are becoming short and prices have increased about a dime as a result. India/Africa reports similar - bullish pricing. Buyers seem hesitant to cover. Covid has Vietnam shut down, so it is going to be a couple of months for a lead time from there.

WW 240 $4.50
WW 320 $4.40

Drought conditions are plaguing California. Shipments remain good and pricing is slightly bullish. Iran has shipped the majority of their crop due to lower prices. California packers are well committed and quite bullish. Buyers that are needing product are having to pay higher prices. The high end of speculation for this year&rsquo;s crop is 1 billion pounds - strong for an off crop year.

18-20 X number 1 $4.75
21-25 X number 1 $4.50
Kernels 80 percent whole $8.75

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